Traders Tuesday pushed the chances of a second consecutive 50 basis point rate Fed rate cut up to 61%.
– China overnight joined in what's now a near global monetary easing campaign by the major economies.
– Bitcoin took aim at rising past $65,000 for the first time since early August.
– A breakout above the $65,000 level is likely necessary to confirm a bull move, said one analyst.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) took aim at more than a one-month high during U.S. afternoon trading hours on Tuesday as the tailwind of what's shaping up to be a near global monetary easing cycle continued to push crypto markets higher.
Bitcoin at press time was ahead nearly 2% over the past 24 hours at $64,300. The price hasn't been above $65,000 since the first week in August.
China overnight joined nearly all other major global economies in easing monetary policy to combat a slowdown in the economy. The news sent the Shanghai Composite higher by more than 4%, but provided only a small and brief bump in the price of bitcoin.
Prices actually dipped under $63,000 in the U.S. morning hours after the Conference Board reported a sharp decline in consumer confidence in September, its headline index tumbling to 98.7 from 105.6 – the steepest monthly fall since August 2021. "Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further," said the Conference Board's Dana Peterson. "Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income."
The news though, sent expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points at its November meeting to 61% from 50% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch.
Shortly after, the latest figures showed a sizable jump in the U.S. M2 money supply in August. The combination of easier China and U.S. monetary policies and rising money supply appeared to be the catalyst for bitcoin's sustained rise throughout afternoon trading. Gold too, liked the news, jumping 1.4% to yet another record high of $2,690 per ounce.
With today's advance, bitcoin is now higher by more than 10% from week-ago levels, but it's hard to say there's been an upside breakout when the price remains below the level of just a few weeks ago.
"Very psychologically difficult to flip from looking to trim on pops during chop to letting your winners ride," wrote well-followed analyst Will Clemente. "A confirmed change in market structure above $65,000 on BTC is the threshold for risk on and switching this bias in my opinion."
